Part of being successful in fantasy football is knowing which players to take in your draft. Another part is knowing when to take them. You have limited capital in your draft. You only have so many picks. And in a snake draft each one of those picks is already locked into a certain spot. Don’t make the mistake of taking an overvalued player too early in your draft. Here are a handful of players that are currently being drafted way too early:
LeSean McCoy
Shady had been going early in the second round before the accusations of domestic abuse arose last month. Surprisingly, McCoy’s draft stock has only tumbled slightly. He is now going early in the third round and is just the 16th running back off the board. Some fantasy players are drafting him to be their RB1 for the season.
Even if McCoy manages to avoid any legal ramifications stemming from the home invasion and subsequent beating of his ex-girlfriend, he could certainly still face suspension and/or the Commissioner Exempt list for part or all of 2018. Worse than the possibility of suspension are the realities of age and team.
The Buffalo Bills have arguably the worst offensive line in football, inexperience at the QB position and a dearth of talented play makers on the field. Plus, Shady is 30 years old. That is the age where the wheels typically fall off running backs. Expecting RB1 or even RB2 production from an aging running back who will be facing stacked boxes in every game and running behind the worst O-line in football is stupid. Don’t be stupid.
Amari Cooper
Cooper is like the Bernie Madoff of fantasy drafts. Every single year fantasy drafters pay a premium for him. Yet every single year his performance is no better, and sometimes worse, than the number two wide receiver on the depth chart. Amari Cooper is a draft swindler. Players like him should be shunned in drafts, not celebrated.
Yes, Michael Crabtree is in Baltimore now. And yes, Jordy Nelson, Crabby’s replacement, is almost a full decade older than Cooper. Yes, people claim Jordy has a lost a step but he is still plenty fast enough to be productive this season. Speaking of losing speed, Cooper has put on weight for the second straight offseason. Bulking up made him slower last year and will make him slower yet again this year. You can take Cooper in third round or get the same production out of Jordy 75 picks later. Or pick up Seth Roberts for free on waivers if you really want a no-risk piece of Jon Gruden’s team.
Tyreek Hill
In 2016 Tyreek Hill ran 23.24 mph on a return that was ultimately called back. For comparison’s sake, that is faster than the max speed of a charging brown bear. Tyreek Hill, in full pads and a helmet could literally steal a brown bear’s picnic basket, tuck it under his arm, and then outrun the damn bear. Hill is always a threat to break a big play because of his speed.
Hill proved his big play ability in 2017 when seven of his his eight touchdown receptions came from 40 or more yards out. That is an insane stat! Only two other receivers in the entire league managed seven receptions of 40 or more yards in 2017 and those weren’t all touchdowns.
Hill is an athletic phenom but he is due for regression. 40+ yard touchdowns can’t continue at that rate. KC has a new quarterback, a new star prototypical number one wideout in Watkins and a new offensive coordinator. Another problem that comes with drafting Hill is that he was boom or bust last year.
Just like DeSean Jackson and other speedsters, if Hill breaks one, you probably win your week. If not, well better luck next week. Hill will be even more of a boom or bust player in 2018 and isn’t worth his early 3rd round price tag as the #10 wideout off the board.
Rashaad Penny
Penny was a first round pick in the 2018 NFL draft when Seattle shocked everyone and took him 27th overall instead of taking an offensive lineman. First round picks usually get plenty of playing time. Rookie running backs generally see the field quicker than other position. Its easy to see why Penny has an early fourth round price tag.
The problem is that Seattle, like Buffalo, is another team with a dreadful offensive line. That will limit the effectiveness of any running back. A leaky O-line also makes pass protection exponentially more difficult, especially on rookies.
On top of those logistics, Pete Carroll can’t stop praising Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise. Both of those backs have prior experience in the NFL, some middling amount of success (Prosise was damn good the last time he was healthy) and are going much later in drafts than Penny.
Rashaad Penny will likely have value this year. He may even win a starting gig as either the primary back or the third down back in Seattle but the early fourth round price tag is just a little too high for a rookie who’s behind two vets on the depth chart and a bad offensive line on the field.
