Thursday, March 28, 2024

Bears Mailbag – Will Bears Get Pass Rushing Help Next Year?

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The Chicago Bears wrap up the preseason tonight against the Buffalo Bills at home. While the game doesn’t count in the standings and no starters from either team will be playing, it’s still a pretty important game to many unheralded players.

After tonight’s game, the Bears, along with 31 other NFL teams, will make cuts and make their initial reductions to 53-man rosters. After that, the waiver period will begin, and players will be claimed left and right. Then, rosters and practice squads will be ‘finalized’ for Week 1. It figures to be a fun and exciting weekend for us fans. But keep in mind, many players will find themselves out of jobs and perhaps out of the league after this week. It’s a brutal business.

With that, we reach into this week’s Bears Mailbag. Thanks to everyone who submitted questions!

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In terms of “name” prospect wealth, yes, next year’s draft is loaded with talent. Other than a few players that I thought were going to declare for the draft this year, I have not spent any time studying prospects for next season. It’s way too early from a process perspective, and I want to be able to watch 2018 tape as well before making any of my own projections on prospects. But many media and professional analysts have already begun the process.

The thing to keep in mind when talking about the draft is that it’s still all projection and a major crapshoot — nobody really knows how players are going to turn out. We can do our best to study tape, analytics, NFL Combine measurements, etc., and make educated guesses. But there are too many factors at play that keep us from knowing for sure.

That said, there are a few key names to keep in mind at the moment. Of course, there are plenty of “unheralded” players that will rise up draft boards as the season plays out, and some hyped names that will fade. But for now, here is a list of names to watch — not just for the Bears, but for the NFL as a whole (in no particular order):

Ed Oliver
Nick Bosa
Clelin Ferrell
Montez Sweat
Zach Allen
Rashan Gary
Austin Bryant
Christian Wilkins
Dexter Lawrence
Dre’Mont Jones

Keep in mind that the Bears don’t have a second-round pick in next year’s draft at the moment from the Anthony Miller trade in this year’s draft. Also keep in mind that Ryan Pace has shown he’ll draft the best player he deems available at the time, regardless of position. So, who knows where/when the Bears will draft a pass rusher?

Many have reported that the Oakland Raiders are looking for two first-round picks for Khalil Mack. And the Bears would have to put together a contract extension offer that would likely exceed $20M in AAV, with a ton of money guaranteed. And if Aaron Donald agrees to a contract extension with the Los Angeles Rams first, Mack will likely look to exceed that contract (even though Donald is a better player).

Even if that’s the case, I make the trade. Mack is one of the best pass rushers in the game, and a proven commodity who is in the prime of his career. And Mitch Trubisky is on his rookie contract for at least three years, so this is the time to break the bank outside of the QB position. If Trubisky is good, the Bears will have three years of a highly paid Mack with which to contend for Super Bowl before they owe Trubisky a big contract. If Trubisky is not good, then the Bears will be looking for a new (rookie) QB after next anyway (and a new general manager). So their new QB will still be cheap and affordable under the salary cap with Mack’s big contract.

I talked about it a little in the question above — we really have no idea how loaded the pass rushing class is. The name hype is heavy, but without studying those players in detail, it’s hard to know who and how many really great prospects there are. Perspective and rankings will change between now and draft time next year — you can guarantee it. And at the end of the day, they’re still prospects. It’s a crapshoot, and some picks will be good and some will be bad.

As far as trading back — if things go well this year, the Bears will be picking in the late-teens, and maybe even the early 20s, next year. How far could they really trade back and still pick up a second-round pick? Also, this assumes another team will want to trade up from the late 20s or early 30s to take a player at the spot where the Bears are … likely for a QB. If not for a QB, why wouldn’t the Bears take a “better ranked” prospect where they are and skip on the extra pick?

Also, there’s the aforementioned “best player available” strategy that Pace loves to employ. We have no idea which players/positions will be ranked highly on the Bears’ board at each draft slot, and Pace has proven he doesn’t care about need if another player at a different position is higher on his board.

There are too many questions that still need answers. I understand where you’re coming from, but it’s not as easy (or realistic) to pull off as it sounds.

It depends on what you mean by “hot seat”. I don’t think he will be cut this year — he just won’t be a starter or someone the Bears expect a lot from this year. And I don’t think he’s a likely candidate to be re-signed next year, unless he somehow explodes this year. The Bears will probably try to extract as much production as they can (realistically) from him, and then move on.

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