The 2018 Chicago Bears are trying to solve a puzzle previous generations have failed at for almost a decade. How can they make the playoffs? Most of this has to do with the composition of the coaching staff and roster. Such things are delicate and finding the right formula can be a painful slog through the mud. How can they make this year different?
People will go into long platitudes about the offense needs to execute better. This guy needs to stay healthy. On and on. Yes, that’s all true for the most part. However, people are overlooking a fundamental flaw the Bears haven’t been able to overcome for a long time.
That is simply getting off to a good start on their schedule. Slows starts have absolutely killed them up through the last season. They say it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. Problem is the margin for error in the NFL is extremely thin. Often teams need good starts and finishes to make the playoffs.
It’s especially true for this one.
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2018 Chicago Bears can’t fall victim to a stumble out of the gates
Looking back over the past decade, the Bears have often been slaves to the way they start their seasons. If they get out of the first month with a winning record, things almost always go well. If they come out with a losing mark, the results are often much worse. Here is a breakdown of all the starts and final records going back to 2008.
2017
- Start 1-3
- Finish 5-11
2016
- Start 1-3
- Finish 3-13
2015
- Start 1-3
- Finish 6-10
2014
- Start 2-2
- Finish 5-11
2013
- Start 3-1
- Finish 8-8
2012
- Start 3-1
- Finish 10-6
2011
- Start 2-2
- Finish 8-8
2010
- Start 3-1
- Finish 11-5
2009
- Start 3-1
- Finish 7-9
2008
- Start 2-2
- Finish 9-7
RESULTS FROM STARTS ABOVE .500 = 36-28 (1 playoff appearance)
RESULTS FROM STARTS AT OR BELOW .500 = 36-60
The numbers don’t lie. Whenever the Bears did 3-1 during the previous 10 seasons, they never had a record worse than 7-9. If it was 1-3 or worse? The best they’ve managed to this point was 6-10. Go back through every playoff season the Bears have had in the Super Bowl era. Of the 14 times they’ve made it, only once did they manage to do so overcoming a start of 1-3 or worse.
In other words, they need to score at least a mark of 2-2 this September to have even a reasonable shot. Their opening schedule is marked with Green Bay, Seattle, Arizona, and Tampa Bay. Two of those teams beat the Bears last year. The Seahawks were 9-7. All except Arizona have a Pro Bowl quarterback running the show.
Certainly not ideal. So if the Bears are anxious to prove they truly are a different team than years past, this coming September will be their ultimate proving ground.
