Matt Nagy arrived with the assurance that he would do everything in his power to make Mitch Trubisky, the offense, and the Chicago Bears a success. While winning games is the end game for him and this team, fans are anxious to see whether he can live up to the hype. Nagy came with plenty of positive vibes from Kansas City where he was offensive coordinator the past seasons.
He held a reputation for being a tireless worker, a positive leader and a natural when it came to game planning. The Chiefs finished with the fifth overall offense in 2017 and quarterback Alex Smith had the best season of his career statistically. Given the similar traits the four-time Pro Bowler and Trubisky share, it was hard not to get excited.
Still, fans want to know about tangible results. So perhaps it might be best to look at this from a broader perspective. One possibility would be to examine the immediate impact on offenses when a head coach with a similar background takes over. Is there a regression? Is there immediate improvement?
Matt Nagy arrival bodes well for Bears’ immediate offensive prospects
I examined every offensive head coach hiring of those who are still active going back five years to 2013. Then I noted the offensive ranking in points scored their first season and compared it to the teams’ previous season. The results were fairly consistent and more than a little encouraging for the Bears when looking at the Nagy hire.
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- Kyle Shanahan: 20th in 2017 (27th in 2016)
- Sean McVay: 1st in 2017 (32nd in 2016)
- Anthony Lynn: 13th in 2017 (9th in 2016)
- Dirk Koetter: 18th in 2016 (20th in 2015)
- Doug Pederson: 16th in 2016 (13th in 2015)
- Adam Gase: 17th in 2016 (27th in 2015)
- Hue Jackson: 31st in 2016 (30th in 2015)
- Jay Gruden: 23rd in 2014 (26th in 2013)
- Bill O’Brien: 14th in 2014 (31st in 2013)
- Andy Reid: 6th in 2013 (32nd in 2012)
The list varies, providing proof that there isn’t a consistent marker for an offense’s progress. Some just take longer to come around than others. However, in other cases, there were immediate and drastic improvements particularly in the cases of Reid, O’Brien, Gase, and McVay. Averaging out the ranking upswings (and downswings), it’s reasonable to expect somewhere in the vicinity of a jump of 8.8 spots this year for the Bears offense.
In other words, if they make steady progress in their new system, it’s reasonable to think they’ll finish somewhere around 23rd or 22nd this year. That might not sound like much to fans, but remember they ranked dead last in 2017. So any sort of improvement would be most welcome. It’s also worth noting this, the last time the Bears had an offense that ranked in the low 20s in a defense that ranked in the top 10, they went to the NFC championship. That was in 2010 when the offense was 21st and the defense was 9th.
Proof, if nothing else, that it’s okay to have high expectations for this team this season. It’s a matter of health and how good of teachers Nagy and his staff are.
