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When it comes to Cubs baseball, one of the most enjoyable parts of the organization’s current state is the lack of uncertainty. That’s probably not what you want to hear as the team is in a middle of a five-game losing streak, but that streak will end as soon as tonight and then you’ll quit panicking for at least 24 hours.
The young guys have all been up at the major league level for at least a year and have already brought us a championship. The necessary amount of money and prospects have been spent on the pitching staff. The back end of the bullpen has done its job far more often than not in recent seasons, including the first 31 games of this year.
Having said that, not everything is set in stone for this team. It rarely ever is in this cruel sport. For the Cubs, there hasn’t been a consistent leadoff hitter on the roster since Dexter Fowler, last night’s Cardinal hero, left town.
The Cubs used three different leadoff hitters over 10 postseason games last year, the team didn’t add any new leadoff options in the offseason and Joe Maddon’s handpicked Spring Training leadoff hitter, Ian Happ, is posting a strikeout rate over 40 percent.
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Albert Almora leads the team with 16 starts in the leadoff spot, followed by Happ who has 10. Almora is a fine option against lefties, but his sub .600 OPS against righties should keep him at the bottom of the order or out of the lineup altogether.
Ben Zobrist led off the first two games of the weekend series and he appears to be the most logical option at the moment, as he’s currently posting a .373 OBP and 10.7% walk rate over 75 plate appearances.
However, the utility man turns 37 this month. It would be unrealistic to expect him to play at a high level in an everyday role given his age and recent injury history. Plus his presence in the lineup means that a gold glove caliber defender in Addison Russell, Javy Baez or Jason Heyward will have to sit.
All of the most important and up to date metrics suggest that the leadoff hitter should be one of the three best hitters on the team. Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo will continue to hit in the second and third spots, and Kyle Schwarber failed to produce from the leadoff spot last season. So who realistically could step up and be a top 3-4 hitter on this team, and do so from the leadoff spot?
Yesterday Maddon used Willson Contreras, and I think that he could continue to hit there as the season moves along.
Contreras is in a major funk right now, he’s swinging at everything and driving nothing. Not good!
However, he posted a .361 OBP with nine XBH over his first 83 plate appearances before he and the rest of his teammates entered this 11 game funk. Also, Contreras started off just as slow last season before eventually taking off.
On May 6, 2017, Willson Contreras' numbers looked like this: 217/.293/.349 (.643 OPS)
From that point forward, he hit .293/.373/.541 (.914 OPS)https://t.co/Ik7nNh3q92
— Tony Andracki (@TonyAndracki23) May 7, 2018
The old fashion, speedy, singles only leadoff hitter is a thing of the past. The Dodgers whooped the Cubs in the NLCS last season with a leadoff hitter that hit 21 homers. The Astros won the world series with a leadoff hitter that hit 34 homers last year. All that matters is getting on base, and if you hit a homer to lead off a game, how is that a bad thing? With Bryant/Rizzo/Schwarber/Baez in the middle of the order, the Cubs don’t need an extra run producer. They need someone to get on base at a .360 clip or better in front of them, and there’s no reason Contreras can’t do that come July, or earlier.
