A Chicago Bears trade up in the 2018 NFL draft cannot and should not be dismissed. This is Ryan Pace we’re talking about. Few men have proven more aggressive early in a draft than him over the past two years. In 2016 he swung a deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to move from the #11 pick to the #9 pick to select Leonard Floyd. A year later he gave up a package of picks to go from #3 to #2 with San Francisco to secure Mitch Trubisky.
This isn’t counting other minor moves either. That same year in 2016 he jumped up to grab linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski in the fourth round. Last year he repeated the same procedure to grab safety Eddie Jackson. Suffice to say when Pace has a certain player in his sights, he has no qualms about going after him.
Thus the question must be brought to the forefront. Could the Bears be eyeing a move up for the third-straight season? The answer is yes. Will they? To answer that is a bit more complicated. The best way to do so is by breaking down the complex situation they face. Namely, it comes in three sections: players they’d move up for, where they need to move up to, and whether they have the currency to do so.
Chicago Bears trade up possibilities breakdown
Likely Targets:
Only the Bears know for sure which players they covet in this draft. So this section is based heavily on speculation. That said, it’s not hard to see which players Pace and his coaches would likely covet in a trade up scenario. The first and probably most likely candidate is N.C. State pass rusher Bradley Chubb.
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Here are all of Bradley Chubb's sacks from 2017 pic.twitter.com/yjVKrWumVw
— Ryan McCrystal (@Ryan_McCrystal) April 2, 2018
The Bears have a serious issue at outside linebacker. Pernell McPhee and Willie Young were both cuts. Lamarr Houston left via free agency. This means Leonard Floyd is the only proven starter on the roster and he’s coming off a knee injury. Aaron Lynch was signed in free agency, true, but he’s had just 2.5 sacks in the past two years. Chubb is universally considered the best edge defender in this class. An instant starter who can fit any scheme.
The other name who’s on the board they could go after? That’s Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson. Remember the Bears’ situation at guard. Josh Sitton was released. Kyle Long is coming off three off-season surgeries to repair a variety of injuries. The interior blocking for Mitch Trubisky is looking a bit suspect.
It's really like an unfair fight watching Quenton Nelson at times. He's so dominant. Finishes defenders on the ground regularly. pic.twitter.com/vnjfDHXSVN
— J.R. (@JReidDraftScout) April 8, 2018
Nelson isn’t just considered the best guard in the draft. He’s considered by many as the best overall prospect. An instant starter with All-Pro potential. The Bears even employ his former offensive line coach Harry Hiestand. The fit is obvious. He’d solve their problem the moment his name was called.
Range They’d Need to Hit:
This is a bit tricky because there’s no telling how other teams have their personal draft boards arranged. All one can do is go by team need and determine where the “floor” is for each prospect. That is to say, the team that everybody knows they won’t get past. Doing so should give a fair idea of where the Bears would need to get to in order to secure the player.
For Chubb, being the one likely top 10 pass rusher increases his value. The odds of him slipping out of the top five picks are remote. This is because the Indianapolis Colts sit at #6 overall. They’re in the midst of a transition to a 4-3 defense. Not only that but their leading pass rusher in 2017 had just 5.5 sacks. They absolutely would not pass on him if he fell. That means the Bears would likely have to get to #5 overall at least to steal him.
The funny part is Denver, who holds #5, is probably the biggest threat to take Nelson. Now, most people believe the Broncos are hoping to get a quarterback. This is true. However, there’s a strong chance as many as three may already be gone before they get a chance to pick. In that situation, John Elway could decide to focus on other positions. Denver gave up 52 sacks in 2017. That is something they need to fix. Nelson would be the ideal solution. That means #4 could be the sweet spot for getting him.
Ammunition Required:
This is where the problem sets in. Thanks to their trade up for Trubisky last year, the Bears are left without a third round pick in 2018. They have a second rounder and two fourth rounders. Odds are Pace will not make the second available. Thus that leaves the two fourths and perhaps a future pick as their best hope for a move up.
Giving up a future pick is also dicey since the Bears have spent six picks or less in two of their past three drafts. That is dangerous to do considering most successful organizations have around eight or more every year. If it’s the two fourth rounders the Bears are willing to part with, they’re screwed. That won’t be enough to get as high as #5, never mind #4.
This means they either sacrifice their second rounder, a future third rounder or find another solution. Thus we come back to another idea: trading Jordan Howard.
Rumors beginning to swirl about a possible Jordan Howard trade. Appears the RB has deleted Bears related posts from his IG account. If he’s dealt, I wonder who Nagy is eyeing in the Draft? Ronald Jones ideally fits the system.
— Brad Evans (@YahooNoise) April 5, 2018
Rumors have swirled around the 23-year old for two months now. This since John Mullin of NBC Chicago revealed Howard was part of trade discussions with the Miami Dolphins for receiver Jarvis Landry. Those rumors haven’t ceased since. Howard might be the most valuable trade chip the Bears have, likely worth somewhere in the vicinity of a middle-to-late second round pick.
If they were to package him with #8 overall, they could definitely get into the top five range for either Chubb or Nelson. The problem is that might be too big a sacrifice given what Howard has meant to this offense with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. This is where the idea of a trade up in 2018 really loses a lot of steam.
It’s not to say the Bears won’t do it. It is just a question of whether they can. Chubb and Nelson are difference-makers but it feels like Pace will need a little bit of luck to pull this off.
