Chicago Bears Already Projected to Pick #1 Overall in 2019

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The Chicago Bears don’t have many believers across the NFL these days. That’s the price paid for consistently being one of the worst teams in the league for four-straight seasons. They’ve gone 5-11, 6-10, 3-13 and 5-11 again since 2014. It’s hard for people to take you seriously when you can’t even sniff a .500 record, never mind a winning one.

It’s going to take a lot to make believers out of people. Until then the Bears will have to endure the constant projections of how bad they’ll continue to suck. The latest comes from a collaboration between ESPN and Football Outsiders. Even with the 2018 draft months away, the stat specialists decided to predict which teams will be picking high again in 2019.

Considering the Bears have had a top 10 pick three of the past four years, it stands to reason they’d be part of the equation. Except it wasn’t just that anymore. This time the math seems to indicate they’d be the ones at the top of the heap. Or bottom depending on the perspective.

1. Chicago Bears (mean forecast: 6.3 wins)

“Chicago probably won’t be the worst team in the league, but the Bears have ranked 25th in DVOA for two straight years and this forecast doesn’t see anything changing. The defense and special teams are generally average, so the questions are mostly about the offense. Bears fans can have hope that Matt Nagy will come in and transform the offense, but overall, offenses tend to take a step back with a new coordinator and new system.

Bears fans also can have hope that Mitchell Trubisky will improve in his second season, but they shouldn’t expect a Carson Wentz-size step forward in 2018. For every Wentz or Jared Goff who improves significantly, there’s a Blake Bortles or Blaine Gabbert who makes only small improvements in his second season.”

It’s hard to understand where the hate for the Bears defense comes from considering they ranked top 10 in 2017. Perhaps it’s a mere side effect of playing with one of the worst offenses in franchise history. Mitch Trubisky wasn’t good last season but he didn’t have a lot of help. The scheme was backward and predictable. His cast of weapons was thin. It will take more than a coaching change to think he can take the next step.

That’s fair. Even so to think this team will pick #1 overall considering how poorly they were coached? That seems a bit harsh. Then again this is the life of a cellar dweller.