First of all this must be prefaced with a clear statement. Chicago Bears GM Ryan Pace was handed what’s tantamount to a 20-year old car when he took over the roster. It was old, beat up and lacking any features that a new car could be rebuilt around. Years of bad drafting was the root cause. Most GMs never have to face that challenge. They typically inherit at least one or two building blocks.
So that should’ve gotten him some leeway. Except this is the NFL. Teams are expected to make progress from year to year. When losses start to pile up, people start to question whether the guys in charge are equal to the task. Pace is in danger of overseeing the worst three-year stretch of Bears football since the schedule moved to 16 games in 1978.
People have showered the blame on the coaching of John Fox and his staff. That’s fair. For the most part its been atrocious, especially on offense. There’s no urgency, no creativity and too often no common sense. That shouldn’t fall on Pace’s shoulders right? Except yes it should.
Ryan Pace hired Fox and perhaps even worse? He kept him
There are two organizational decisions that a GM will be judged by. Who he got for a franchise quarterback and who he chose for head coach. The jury is still out on Mitch Trubisky, but the odds continue tipping in the wrong direction. Much of that is because his choice of Fox as coach was clearly the wrong one.
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Not only did he hire an older coach who was turning 60, somebody likely not up to the task of a full rebuild. He ignored the glaring warning sign of the fact that Denver fired the man despite going 12-4 his final year with the team. That should’ve been a red flag. Pace though, at the urging of team advisor Ernie Accorsi accepted the hire.
Fox was known for quick turnarounds and there was some hope after the team went 6-10 their first year. Then the wheels started to come off. Injuries mounted. Coaching quality diminished. As a result the team finished 3-13. At that point Pace had a window. Fox had not delivered on the quick turnaround. Everybody knew a change at quarterback was coming. He could’ve ended it there. Instead he blinked.
Has the drafting been that good?
Thus far the biggest argument in favor of Pace has been his drafting. Through three off-seasons he’s added a number of quality names to the roster including Eddie Goldman, Leonard Floyd, Cody Whitehair, Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen and Eddie Jackson. The problem is only one of those names could be considered a blue chip, Pro Bowl talent. That’s Howard.
To this point Pace has made 20 picks. The poor coaching has made it difficult to determine how good a number of them were. Still to have one Pro Bowl player emerge thus far? That’s troubling. Worse still two of his first round picks have developed injury problems. Kevin White has suffered multiple issues from leg to back breaks. Leonard Floyd dropped out of 2016 with repeat concussions and then this year with a knee injury.
Health issues are impossible for a GM to predict but facts are facts. Pace’s drafts haven’t produced enough. Will better coaching change that? No doubt it’s the hope he’s clinging to at this moment.
His free agent misfires far outweigh his hits
Let’s paint a picture here. Of the 10 highest-paid players currently on the Bears roster, seven of them were free agents brought in by Pace. The names are as follows:
- Mike Glennon
- Akiem Hicks
- Josh Sitton
- Pernell McPhee
- Danny Trevathan
- Dion Sims
- Bobby Massie
Among those names only two could be considered relative hits at this point. Akiem Hicks has been outstanding on defense since he arrived last year. Josh Sitton went to the Pro Bowl. Danny Trevathan has played well but to date has missed nine games between injuries and suspensions. After that the list gets ugly.
Mike Glennon was a disaster in his brief four-game stint, turning it over eight times. Pernell McPhee has suffered from constant knee issues, something that Pace surely knew was a risk when he gave the outside linebacker over $7 million a year. Dion Sims failed to live up to his billing as a blocker and is an even worse pass catcher. Bobby Massie hasn’t been terrible but he hasn’t been good either.
This isn’t even counting guys like Markus Wheaton, Marcus Cooper, and Quintin Demps. All of whom got solid pay days from Pace and given practically nothing back in return. For a man that is formerly a pro scout, that’s a bad look.
Truth be told he’s acting too much like Phil Emery
One of the things that eventually condemned former GM Phil Emery was his inability to stockpile draft picks. He rarely worked the phone on draft day unless it was to move up for a player. When he did move down it was always later in the draft when the returns would be minimal. The Bears ended up with six picks in each of their first two drafts. For a man who said he intended to build through the draft, it’s hard to do that without more picks.
Pace has unfortunately followed that same blueprint. His first draft, like Emery’s was fairly disastrous save for the second round picks (Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Goldman). He has gone two out of three drafts with six picks or fewer, relying on free agency to pick up the slack. Emery did the same exact thing. Is it any wonder the results are almost identical?
By contrast Rick Spielman, his first year as GM in Minnesota conducted four different trades in his first draft alone. In doing so he acquired three picks for that draft and two picks for the next. Those moves would help them acquire four future Pro Bowlers including Harrison Smith and Xavier Rhodes. It’s not simply about trading down or trading up. The best GMs must be flexible enough to do both within a draft while still maintaining a healthy number of picks.
That’s why Pace had so much success in 2016. As things stand he’ll enter 2018 with six picks again.
Is Pace safe? Losing out might change that
So that brings us back to the big question. Fox is of course gone. Is Pace still safe regardless? A couple weeks ago that wasn’t even a question. Unfortunately things are spiraling out of control fast. The Bears have lost five-straight games now including ones to the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers and previously one-win 49ers. If this keeps up at some point people will get tired of pointing the finger at just the coaches and start moving in on the front office.
Try to imagine how you’d feel if the Bears finished 3-13 for the second-straight season. Can all of that honestly be blamed on coaching? Suffice to say Pace needs a win, and needs it soon.
