A lot of people are asking where things went wrong for head coach John Fox. There was so much hope after 2015. Despite a poor finish to the season there were signs that the team could be headed in the right direction. Then 2016 happened and it feels like Chicago Bears never fully recovered from that. Now Fox is fighting for his job. Was there a single decision he made that, in hindsight, he shouldn’t have?
Well most of the problems trace back to 2016. Was there a big change last year that started them on this course? Yes, and a lot of fans aren’t going to want to hear it. That was the moment they lost offensive coordinator Adam Gase. After one season of reasonable success, he accepted a head coaching job with the Miami Dolphins.
It was at that point where Fox was faced with a difficult decision. Does he try to find a heavily qualified candidate to bring in and take over? Or does he promote somebody from within in hopes of maintaining system continuity? Fox opted for the latter, promoting quarterbacks coach Dowell Loggains.
Looking back, it’s clear now that was a mistake.
Subscribe to the BFR podcast and ride shotgun with Dave and Ficky as they break down Bears football like nobody else.
John Fox choice of Loggains was logical but uninspired
The decision wasn’t considered a bad one at the time. It made sense. Jay Cutler had just produced his most efficient season as a Bear. Promoting Loggains to keep the basic scheme in place was a logical move. At the same time nobody felt he was anywhere close to Gase’s level as a planner or play caller. The hard truth is in the numbers.
In 2015 the Bears scored 335 points and 5,517 total yards under Gase. A year later they posted more yards at 5,704 but only scored 279 points. This season is setting up to be even worse. Chicago is on pace to score 267 points with a mere 4,656 yards. People will try to defend Loggains by saying the injuries have played a part. Except Gase dealt with injuries too. Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White and Martellus Bennett all missed significant time in 2015.
What stood out most about Gase was his feel for play calling. He understood how to keep an offense in rhythm and get the ball out of the quarterbacks’ hand fast. There was also a sense of creativity with his formations and alignments that often led to big plays.
Loggains, as time as uncovered, lacks that level of preparation and instinct. His units often struggle with penalties and bad mistakes. Thus far this year they’ve run 356 offensive plays from 10 yards or more beyond the first down markers. That’s out of 541 total. That’s 65.8%. Gase did a much better job of staying ahead of the sticks at 59.7%.
What makes it worse is better options were available
If that weren’t bad enough, looking back Fox missed a golden opportunity to keep the train on the tracks. Two coaches in particular had just become available that 2016 offseason. Both had more proven track records as offensive coordinators. Frank Reich was released by San Diego where he’d had a solid run. He was eventually scooped by Philadelphia, who now have one of the hottest offenses in the league.
The other was Pat Shurmur. He had five years of coordinating experience and also two as a head coach in Cleveland. Not to mention he was quarterbacks coach in Philadelphia when Donovan McNabb had the best run of his career. Instead of getting him, the Vikings brought him on as their tight ends coach. Nine weeks into the season he was promoted to offensive coordinator. Minnesota currently has the ninth ranked offense in the NFL.
Perhaps this is a glaring reminder that continuity isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be. If Fox is indeed fired come January, people can point to his promotion of Loggains as the fork in the road he shouldn’t have taken.
