The 2017 NBA draft has finally arrived. The Chicago Bulls have the 16th pick in the first round and the 38th pick in the second round tonight in New York. As rumors swirl around a potential Jimmy Butler trade, he and teammate Dwyane Wade are hanging out in Paris. Earlier this week, Wade informed Bulls management he’s picking up his $23.8 million player option to return next season. As for the Butler rumors, plenty of teams are trying to come up with an offer good enough to suit the high demands of Gar Forman and John Paxson. Right now, it looks unlikely that such an offer will materialize.
So let’s focus on tonight’s draft, assuming the Bulls stay put and pick 16th in the first round.
Draft Strategy
Forman and Paxson have a track record of drafting “best available” as opposed to drafting to fit the roster’s specific needs. However, we might see them stray from that course a bit this time around. Paxson made note several times that this roster seriously lacked shooting threats last season, and they’ll try to add a shooter in some way. That could mean a guard, a wing or even a stretch power forward with potential as an NBA three point shooter.
The other common denominator among previous GarPax picks is age and experience. The only two “one-and-done” players they’ve drafted in recent history are Derrick Rose and Marquis Teague. One of those worked out great (at least in the beginning) and the other was a total bust. Will we see them draft another player with several years of college experience? That might be difficult in this draft, as this class is very heavily saturated with one-year guys. If the best player available only has one year (either overseas or in college) under his belt, look for GarPax to take a chance.
With that – and given our latest information about certain prospects’ draft stocks – here’s my updated list of the top five most likely candidates for the Bulls to select with the 16th pick.
Top 5 Most Likely Bulls Draft Picks In 2017
5. OG Anunoby – Indiana
Year: Sophomore Position: SF/PF Meet/Workout with Bulls: No
Anunoby is one of the more fascinating unknowns in this draft. He burst onto the scene with a dominant defensive performance against Kentucky’s Jamal Murray in the 2016 Tournament his freshman year. Then OG hit a huge roadblock midway through his sophomore season with a torn ACL.
The kid is an athletic freak of nature in every perfect way for today’s NBA. The combo forward is long (6’8, 7’2 wingspan), strong and confident on the defensive end. He could very well turn into a Draymond Green/Kawhi Leonard type, capable of guarding 4 or 5 positions on the floor. He still needs a lot of work on the offensive end, but that can come with time. Draymond wasn’t the confident three point shooter he is now when he came out of Michigan State. Kawhi had virtually no offensive versatility when he got drafted from San Diego State. Look at them now.
If the Bulls want young, athletic guys who can guard multiple positions while developing a better NBA stroke, Anunoby would be a great option at 16. But with a different torn ACL so fresh in their memory, GarPax might shy away from him.
*DRAFT DAY UPDATE: According to my source who spoke with Anunoby earlier this week, the Indiana product believes he is falling down most teams’ draft boards. If the Bulls lose out on some of their targeted shooters projected to go from 10-15, Anunoby could very likely still be available.
4. Justin Patton – Creighton
Year: Freshman Position: C Meet/Workout with Bulls: Yes
When chatting with Bulls scouts at the NBA Combine, Patton expressed confidence in his ability to contribute offensively around the perimeter at the NBA level. Smart kid, knowing that’s the answer they were looking for. But is it true? Let’s pump the brakes. His eye-popping 57.1% shooting from deep last season falls flat when you realize he only attempted 0.4 threes per game. He does have the size (7’0, 7’2.5 wingspan) and quickness to be an effective NBA center. He runs the floor well in transition and can play above the rim.
I wouldn’t necessarily take Patton over Jarrett Allen (Texas) or Ike Anigbogu (UCLA) if you’re talking about NBA potential at the center position, but we can’t forget the Gar Factor (patent pending). Patton played at Creighton under whom? Coach Greg McDermott. The Ames, Iowa connection might strike again in the 2017 draft.
*DRAFT DAY UPDATE: As much as Gar loves his little bubble of Iowa State and Creighton connections, I’m under the impression that the Bulls have been more impressed by Jarrett Allen of Texas. If they decide to go big, I give Allen a slight edge over Patton if both are available.
3. Jarrett Allen – Texas
Year: Freshman Position: C Meet/Workout with Bulls: Yes
Allen had a private workout with the Bulls earlier this week, according to K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune. The center from Texas was a one-man wrecking crew through the Big 12 last season. Like Ike Anigbogu, he will need time to develop his offensive game at the NBA level, but he has more in his arsenal coming into the draft. He’s decent executing the pick and roll, and his enormous hands make him a great rim runner and lob target. Allen’s physique is top notch, standing 6’10 with a whopping 7’5.5 wingspan. The defensive skills are ready for the NBA.
Downside? Virtually zero chance at developing perimeter offense. While he converted 68% of his shots around rim for Texas, he played enough minutes at the four to prove he has no business playing the four in the NBA. If the Bulls insist on drafting a shooter, Allen’s out.
*DRAFT DAY UPDATE: Allen has begun to fall in several final versions of mock drafts, even as far as 26th in Chad Ford’s updated column this morning. The big knock on Allen is his “lack of focus” and similar character flaws. If that talk grows louder today, the Bulls might think twice about taking him. After all, young player development is *supposedly* this team’s focus moving forward. They don’t want to draft a kid who won’t put in the work.
2. Justin Jackson – UNC
Year: Junior Position: SF Meet/Workout with Bulls: Yes
Jackson might be the prospect most frequently paired with the Bulls in mock drafts going back several months. The junior forward helped the Tar Heels reach back to back championship games in the NCAA Tournament. His strong play through UNC’s triumph this spring vaulted him up several draft boards from late first rounder to potential lottery pick.
Fun fact: Jackson is from Tomball, Texas. Yeah, Jimmy Butler’s hometown.
Jackson is a stereotypical pick for GarPax. He’s older (already 22) and has three years of college experience. He’s not the most athletic guy or the most skilled guy in the draft, but he’s a well-rounded player ready for the NBA. Jackson saw great improvement in his three point production as a junior, setting a Tar Heels record with 105 made threes at a 37% clip. His defensive versatility is limited, but his high basketball IQ should attract Hoiberg and the Bulls.
Jackson felt confident in his performance after working out for the Bulls last week:
“IT WAS PROBABLY ONE OF MY BEST WORKOUTS AS FAR AS LEARNING AND COMPETITION. I LOVED IT. IT WAS INTENSE. I FEEL I SHOT THE BALL REALLY WELL.” – JUSTIN JACKSON
*DRAFT DAY UPDATE: After a surge into the lottery picks in some mock drafts, Jackson has cooled off a bit. I’d say there’s above a 50% chance that he’s still on the board when the Bulls pick at 16. The big question will be whether or not GarPax stray from their traditional methods and follow through on drafting somebody “younger and more athletic.” If they chicken out, Jackson will be the pick.
1. Terrance Ferguson – Adelaide (Australia)
Year: 1 year pro (NBL) Position: SG/SF Meet/Workout with Bulls: Yes
Ferguson is a wildcard. The five-star recruit out of high school turned down Arizona to play his one pre-NBA year professionally in Australia. He served as a role player off the bench for the Adelaide 36ers, so his stats are nothing special. However, in his meeting with the Bulls at the NBA combine he talked about the benefits of playing against “grown men” in Australia’s pro league.
Terrance could be a great fit for Fred Hoiberg’s system in Chicago. He has the necessary physicality and skillset to develop into a great 3-and-D wing in the NBA. He mostly played shooting guard in Australia but has the size (6’7, 6’9 wingspan) to play minutes at small forward as well. Ferguson can get hot from three point range, and is also a very smart passer. In Fred’s pace and space offense, he’d be ready and willing to make the extra pass. His athletic ability is among the best in this draft class, and he just turned 19. “Younger and more athletic”? This kid definitely checks those boxes for GarPax.
*DRAFT DAY UPDATE: Unless a team ahead of the Bulls pulls a surprise move, I believe Ferguson will be available at 16. If GarPax are firm in their desire to add a shooter/athlete, this is the pick to make. Ferguson will need time to develop an NBA-ready game, but he’s only 19. I’m crossing all fingers that the Bulls finally adjust their draft strategy and take a player with raw athleticism and a high ceiling.
Too Late
Here are a few names the Bulls would love to get their hands on, but will likely be gone at 16. If they’re somehow still on the board, the Bulls should pounce: Donovan Mitchell (SG – Louisville), Luke Kennard (SG – Duke), Zach Collins (C – Gonzaga), Lauri Markkanen (PF – Arizona)
Honorable Mentions
If it’s not one of the five guys detailed above, here are a few more names Bulls fans should be aware of as possible alternative picks: Harry Giles (PF – Duke), Bam Adebayo (PF/C – Kentucky), John Collins (PF – Wake Forest), DJ Wilson (PF – Michigan)
Trade Up?
This is the last and – in my opinion – least likely scenario for the Bulls tonight. There have been reports that the Bulls are trying to trade up into the lottery. Kentucky point guard De’Aaron Fox and NC State point guard Dennis Smith Jr are rumored to be their targets. To get a chance at Fox, GarPax would need to trade into the top five. Phoenix picks 4th and have been mentioned in Jimmy Butler trade rumors. Smith is projected to go in the top ten. If the Bulls were to pull off a Butler trade with Minnesota, the Wolves’ #7 pick could probably land Smith. Another option would be somehow acquiring Sacramento’s #10 pick and hoping Smith falls that far.
That just about covers all the bases. Enjoy the draft tonight, everybody!
