Researchers Confirmed Bears Were Most Injury Impacted Team of 2016

The Chicago Bears injury situation of 2016 was remarkable. It truly was like nothing fans had ever seen in franchise history. At least during the Super Bowl era. Nobody could remember so many players being knocked out for long stretches of time before. Not just any players either. Key players.

Leonard Floyd, Jay Cutler, Kevin White, Josh Sitton, Kyle Long, Eddie Goldman, Danny Trevathan, Kyle Fuller and Pernell McPhee were all major names on the roster. All missed significant time with various health problems. It got people to think whether the team might be cursed. If nothing else they had to be one of the most injured teams in recent history, right?

As it turns out? Yes. According to the stat masters at Football Outsiders, crunching of the data revealed that the Bears were beset by an abnormal number of losses. Some of the worst they’ve seen in almost two decades of data recording.

Chicago Bears injury situation was Category 5 bad

“For those unfamiliar with AGL (Adjusted Games Lost), we do not simply add up the number of games missed. We are able to quantify how much teams were affected by injuries based on two principles: (1) Injuries to starters, injury replacements and important situational reserves (No. 3 wide receiver, nickel corner, etc.) matter more than injuries to benchwarmers; and (2) Injured players who do take the field are usually playing with reduced ability, which is why AGL is based not strictly on whether the player was active for the game or not, but instead is based on the player’s game status that week (IR/PUP, out, doubtful, questionable, or probable).”

It’s a much more detailed way to look at the health situation for the Bears last year. Predictably the results were bad. Historically bad. Below is the table for their results. Not only did Chicago blow away the rest of the field with their 2016 losses, it’s easy to forget how ravaged they were in 2015 as well.

“Chicago’s 155.1 AGL is the highest in our database since 2000, eclipsing the 141.3 AGL for the 2013 Giants. Chicago had 12 players incur at least 6.0 AGL. The next closest teams were Buffalo and San Diego with eight such players each.

Not surprisingly, the Bears finished 3-13 and had a disappointing season. However, the team was still 25th in DVOA instead of dead last, and played pretty competitively down the stretch despite Barkley playing in a rag-tag offense.”

Bears performed well under horrendous circumstances

People rolled their eyes when GM Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox insisted a run of good health might change fortunes in 2017. It’s so easy to forget how much injuries impact team performance. People get lost in the common line, “Every team is hurt during the season.” Sure, but that’s a copout. The reality is most winning teams every year are often the least-injured ones.

All six NFC playoff teams last year had an AGL rating of 70.6 or lower. That’s less than half of what the Bears suffered. Excuses exist for a reason and this is a big one to fall back on. It’s why so many people keep referencing the health situation. They know the talent level of this roster is good. It flashed frequently throughout last year with periodic stretches of competitive play. The key remains whether the best players can stay on the field.

If they do, the 2017 Bears could end up surprising a lot of people.