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The Chicago Cubs are kinda sorta maybe starting to potentially figure things out.
After a brutally inconsistent, and frankly confounding, start to the season, the Cubs are, after 72 games, sitting at 37-35. Luckily, due to a pretty weak NL Central division, they’re just 1.5 games behind the first place Milwaukee Brewers.
Yeah, it’s still weird to type that.
But in the last week or so, the Cubs have started to show slightly more consistent signs of life. Anthony Rizzo moving to the leadoff spot has been a revelation, as Rizzo is now the greatest leadoff man in the history of baseball (based on a 9 game sample size). And a lot of the lineup, namely Addison Russell, Willson Contreras, and Ian Happ, has started to come around as well.
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This despite a non-existent, and now demoted, Kyle Schwarber, an injured Jason Heyward, an injured Ben Zobrist, and a starting rotation that is still not anywhere close to what fans would like it to be.
And the rotation is where we can expect Theo Epstein & Co. to focus their efforts as we approach July and the trade deadline. We’ve seen the Cubs linked to a variety of starters, such as Sonny Gray, Chris Archer, Yu Darvish, and even Jose Quintana.
In order to acquire a starter of their caliber, the Cubs will be forced to make some tough decisions regarding whom to part with. Once upon a time, the list of players the Cubs would absolutely not be willing to give up to acquire help was more or less set in stone. I’ve always imagined those conversations going something like this:
Cubs: “Hey <Team X>, we’d like <Starting Pitcher Y> because he’s good, young, and under team control for a while.”
<Team X>: “Sure, let’s start our conversation with one of either Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, or Addison Russell.”
Cubs: “HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.”
Cubs: <Hang Up>
Cubs: <Dial Back>
<Team X>: “Hey, Theo, did we lose you?”
Cubs: “HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. No. That was just so dumb that I had to laugh and hang up on you twice. Peace.”
Cubs: <Hang Up>
That used to be the reality of the situation. And because of that, guys like Javier Baez, Albert Almora, and Ian Happ were considered locks to be used as trade bait for the young ace the Cubs’ rotation so desperately needs.
Alas, times have changed.
Schwarber has been in a season long slump. The Cubs batted him leadoff for a majority of the season, and his numbers have been (likely) historically bad. He’s hitting .171, but his OBP is .295. Under .300!!! That’s unacceptable at any position, especially leadoff. I love Schwarber and we know he can be an excellent hitter. But his struggles at the plate, combined with his less-than-averageness in the field, have certainly made the former World Series hero “available”.
Russell has started to come around, but his slash line still needs a lot of work. He’s hitting .234 with just 7 homers and 29 RBIs, with a .304 OBP. Plus, his personal life has become a highly publicized disaster, with his wife filing for divorce amid cheating and domestic violence allegations. This is a sensitive situation and because of that, Javy Baez, who was once viewed as potentially expendable, basically becomes Russell’s insurance policy in case Russell’s situation off the field worsens. Especially since Gleyber Torres was traded last year.
Happ burst onto the scene when he was promoted by the Cubs. He’s displayed very impressive power and plate discipline during his time in the majors, along with the type of versatility that Joe Maddon loves to employ in his position players. Happ, at the very least, has only increased his trade value. But with the Cubs vulnerable in terms of sudden injuries and an inconsistent offense, it would probably be unwise to trade him at this time.
What this tells us is that the Cubs’ list of tradeable assets with any sort of significant value is pretty small. Guys that were considered untouchable at one time probably aren’t anymore, and won’t fetch a lot back for Chicago. And guys that were the Cubs’ best bargaining chips, are now a lot more valuable ON the team instead of in a trade proposal. Sure, Eloy Jimenez is still in the minors. But is that enough to get a deal done and still maintain value for Chicago?
The Cubs’ chances of making a deal for one of the prime starters on the market are drastically lower than they were just this offseason. And with a shaky rotation showing minimal signs of breaking out of it, the Cubs are going to have to get more creative than ever to do anything about it.
