A lot of Chicago Bears fans are already placing bets on when it will happen. When will the first Mitch Trubisky start occur? They heard the company line from GM Ryan Pace. The plan is for the young quarterback to sit on the bench and learn for this season while Mike Glennon handles the job. That sounds nice, until the realization comes back around.
Trubisky is a #2 overall draft pick. That comes with a certain stigma. Picks that high are expected to contribute right away. For an idea, of the 35 top five selections from 2010 to 2016 just one of them didn’t play a single snap his rookie season and that was because of an injury. That is the trend the Bears are supposedly going to defy.
Bold to be sure. Also a bit hard to believe. The reality is the pressure will be overwhelming at some point this year to get Trubisky into the action. It’s going to happen. Why? Because it always happens. Fans will groan at the first poor game Glennon has this year and the chants will start from both fans and the media. They can’t help themselves. When something isn’t working, making a change seems logical.
Not in this case.
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The first Mitch Trubisky start should be in 2018
One of the big problems with the Bears over the years is they’ve never been willing to take the long view approach. Always they were a team that operated like the engineer of an old hydroelectric dam. Scramble to fix problems as they appear, providing patches instead of genuine fixes to the issues. It’s clear the dam isn’t operating at peak efficiency, but rather than just tearing it down and building new one, they let it limp on in hopes it somehow miraculously becomes more efficient at some point.
They aren’t willing to bite the bullet of short-term struggle in the name of long-term gain. That is what Trubisky represents. A franchise quarterback could make the Bears perennial playoff contenders, but only if he’s developed correctly. That might mean sacrificing one year to let him learn in safety on the sideline. Rick Morrissey of the Chicago Sun-Times explains why that can be so tough.
“If a franchise is bold enough to take an unheralded quarterback with the second overall pick in the draft, it needs to be bold enough not to give in to impulse and every outside demand to play him during his rookie year. That won’t be easy. Pace wants to be right, and surely he has a strong desire to prove his doubters wrong. There might be a temptation to play Trubisky and say, “Told you so!’’
But the best way to accomplish optimal results is to let him spend the year learning behind the scenes and avoiding the mental and physical scars that could last a lifetime.”
Accepting reality
Then there’s the practical argument. The Bears went 3-13 last year. Injuries did play a part in that. However, even better health doesn’t signal this young team is ready to enter the playoff picture. It’s doubtful starting a rookie quarterback will change that too. Since 2000, only four of the 21 QBs selected in the top five managed to produce a winning season in their first year. Those being Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Robert Griffin III, and Andrew Luck.
Three of them had significantly more experience than Trubisky coming out of college. Only Sanchez didn’t and the long-term results from him speak volumes.
- Matt Ryan: 31 starts
- Mark Sanchez: 16 starts
- Robert Griffin III: 41 starts
- Andrew Luck: 38 starts
As it turns out there are a number of examples scattered throughout history of quarterbacks not starting right away and still having great success. Among the list of names who didn’t start a single game their rookie year? Ken O’Brien, Daunte Culpepper, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers. All became future Pro Bowlers. Morrissey breaks down why there’s no reason to rush Trubisky either.
“The Bears probably aren’t going to win many games in 2017, and this can’t be overstated: It’ll be OK. It really will be. The moment NFL commissioner Roger Goodell read Trubisky’s name as the Bears’ pick, it meant that the team was committed to a patient approach. It’s tough when everyone, coaches and players especially, is impatient. But the patient route is the way to go.
For better or worse, Pace’s career forever will be tied to Trubisky. For the good of the organization, it’s up to him to make sure the young quarterback is put in the best position to succeed.”
If that means giving this year to Glennon and then using next offseason to further build up the roster in anticipation of Trubisky? So be it.