There is a long-standing myth in the NFL that drafting a quarterback high can protect a head coach from being fired. The reason being the importance of continuity for the sake of the player. Why it’s such an effective idea is based on its logic. Few things can destroy the career of a young player more than lack of consistent coaching. That’s why most felt that the John Fox job security got a bump when Mitch Trubisky was drafted in April.
Is it true though? According to some research, I went back and looked at every quarterback drafted in the first round who saw his head coach get fired after his first year. Here is the list of names involved:
- Chad Pennington
- Rex Grossman
- Aaron Rodgers
- Matt Leinart
- Tim Tebow
- Blaine Gabbert
- Brandon Weeden
- Jameis Winston
- Marcus Mariota
- Jared Goff
- Paxton Lynch
As with most lists there are definitely some names involved that give the argument some credence. However, the fact is guys like Grossman and Leinart were done in more by injuries than by coaching issues. Meanwhile guys like Pennington, Mariota, Winston and of course Aaron Rodgers had good to great success despite the change.
So the bottom line remains. Does the pick warrant Fox staying put even if the season is bad?
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John Fox job security is tied to his record, not his new QB
Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune was posed that very question during one of his mailbag sessions. His answer was rather straightforward with little room for interpretation.
“I see where you are going with this but I tend to disagree. I think Fox and his staff are going to do whatever they think gives the team the best chance to win every single week of the season. Ultimately, coaches are judged by wins and losses in a bottom line business. If and when Trubisky plays and he plays well, that will bode well for Fox, Loggains and the rest of the staff. To address the second half of your question, I have a hard time believing Fox would keep his job if the Bears win only three games. They’re 9-23 over the last two season and in today’s NFL 12 victories over a three-year period doesn’t get it done for a head coach.
Can you imagine the public reaction if the Bears were to go 3-13 and not make significant changes at Halas Hall? The other key element you’re overlooking here is that Fox is signed through the 2018 season. It’s rare in the NFL for a coach to be given a lame duck season so the Bears are likely going to have to extend Fox at the end of this season or replace him. I personally don’t believe it’s a good idea to keep a coaching staff for continuity’s sake if the results don’t justify continued employment.”
There’s really no getting around that argument. Continuity is a fine idea but it’s also a gray area. That’s because there can be good continuity and bad continuity. The only thing that can be worse than putting a young player under multiple head coaches in a short span is putting him under a bad head coach for a long span. Therein lay the big issue for the Bears.
Eventually they have to make the decision to fish or cut bait. Can they trust Trubisky to work his way into a new offensive system after just one year? Given the storied work habits about the young man, it shouldn’t be a problem if that’s what it comes to. So in truth Biggs is right. The only way Fox keeps his job is if he wins more games than he did last year.
