The Bears Trubisky trade was, shall we say, a “polarizing” moment of the NFL draft for Chicago fans. More than a few people were furious about it. Some because they felt it was unnecessary to take a quarterback. After all the team had just got done paying $18.5 million to Mike Glennon. Others because they gave up two thirds and a fourth round pick to move up from #3 to #2 overall to get him.
Assumptions immediately came out that the San Francisco 49ers had basically “fleeced” the Bears for a relatively unproven quarterback. Some have even gone so far as to say it’s the move that will get GM Ryan Pace fired. Was it really that bad? Not according to new details surrounding the situation.
Long-time Sports Illustrated columnist Peter King represented the MMQB when he got an inside look at the 49ers war room during the draft. He was front row center when the trade went down and the details are beyond fascinating. It started with discussions over compensation, involving the usual bargaining until a final price was reached.
Pricing the Bears Trubisky trade
“The Bears and Niners had an understanding that if Chicago’s man was still on the board after Cleveland picked (Chicago GM Ryan Pace wouldn’t tell Lynch who Player X was; the Niners figured it was Thomas), the Bears would give at least two third-round picks to move from three to two.
No nerves, but no pleasantries either. Marathe, who talks very fast and with great confidence, called another team with interest in the second slot and said, “We got some good action on the pick.” Marathe talked to the club official (he would not disclose the team, or the official) for maybe a minute, just to crystallize that if Garrett was there at two, the Niners would either pick or take a ransom for the pick.
“See if we can get one last thing with Chicago,” Lynch said to Marathe.”
Eventually the agreement was made verbally. As expected the Cleveland Browns went with defensive end Myles Garrett #1 overall. Trubisky was still available. San Francisco phoned in the trade and the two teams swapped places. Pace got the guy he coveted and the 49ers got some extra draft capital they so desperately needed.
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Paying too much?
Of course then came the chants that the Bears gave up way too much in the deal. Three mid round picks to move up one spot? Absurd. Stupid. Terrible. As it turns out though Pace knew what he was doing. Ever the stiff negotiator, he actually came away with a pretty fair price as King later explained when comparing it to a previous trade from #3 to #2 for a quarterback.
“The last time a team traded up from three to two in the first round to get a quarterback happened in 1998, when San Diego moved up one spot and ended up drafting Washington State quarterback Ryan Leaf. Let’s compare the compensation paid for two quarterbacks picked in the same spot 19 years apart.
• What the Bears paid to move from three to two for Trubisky: third- and fourth-round picks this year, and a 2018 fourth-round pick.
• What the Chargers paid to move from three to two for Leaf: a second-round pick in 1998, a first-round pick in 1999, returner/receiver Eric Metcalf and linebacker Patrick Sapp.
• Points Beathard paid to get in position to draft Leaf: 1,980.
• Points Pace paid to get in position to draft Trubisky: 580.”
Leaf was and likely still is the greatest draft bust in NFL history. He started just 21 games in San Diego and went 4-17. During that span he barely got over 3,100 yards passing with 13 touchdowns and 33 interceptions. He was cut in 2001. So even if Trubisky ends up as bad as Leaf was, which is highly unlikely, Pace is secure in the fact he didn’t mortgage the future like the Chargers did.
Necessity breeds action
Naturally the lingering question was why. Why did Pace feel the necessity to make the trade at all? Odds say Trubisky stood a good chance of being available at #3 overall. The Bears could’ve kept their picks and still gotten their guy. King concedes that the percentages say this is true, however he was quick to defend Pace’s decision. The rationale made plenty of sense in context.
“Ask me my gut feeling, and it is that yes, the Bears would have gotten Trubisky at three without moving. But it was not at all certain. What if the scenario happened that, as of Thursday, was legitimately possible—what if the Browns packed up enough picks to make the Niners move from two to 12? The 49ers had been in touch with Cleveland before the draft, and were anticipating they could get a call from the Browns when they were on the clock at two with Trubisky available. There was also a mystery team that I could not identify that wanted to move to two and wouldn’t say which player the team was targeting.”
In other words the belief that other teams were vying for #2 overall is true. Maybe Pace could’ve stayed put and still gotten Trubisky, but there was no way to be sure. In such cases, if you want the player badly enough, you trade up to get him. So Pace did, and he didn’t have to pay through the nose. If Trubisky becomes the franchise guy the team envisions, this sequence of events will be viewed as one of the more brilliant and well-executed draft maneuvers in Bears history.
