All anybody can say at this point is they have no idea what the Chicago Bears 2017 record will be. They can only hope and pray it’s not as bad as the 3-13 debacle they had to sit through last season. A pain which ESPN is seems to be gleefully raking people over it again with their miniseries “We The Fans.” Bad form, guys, bad form.
Regardless the question remains unchanged. Can the Bears improve their record this coming season, and if so by how much? Well often the best way to find solutions to such problems is by looking to history. What did other teams who went 3-13 in recent years manage to do the season after?
That is what the following list will show. Every team since the year 2000 who finished with that exact record and how much they improved or got worse the subsequent season. Then the numbers will be crunched to determine what the average rate of improvement is.
Bears 2017 record as determined by league average
- 2000 Cardinals (3-13)
- 2001 Cardinals (7-9) +4
- 2000 Browns (3-13)
- 2001 Browns (7-9) +4
- 2001 Bills (3-13)
- 2002 Bills (8-8) +5
- 2002 Lions (3-13)
- 2003 Lions (5-11) +2
- 2005 Saints (3-13)
- 2006 Saints (10-6) +7
- 2006 Lions (3-13)
- 2007 Lions (7-9) +4
- 2007 Rams (3-13)
- 2008 Rams (2-14) -1
- 2009 Buccaneers (3-13)
- 2010 Buccaneers (10-6) +7
- 2011 Vikings (3-13)
- 2012 Vikings (10-6) +7
- 2013 Redskins (3-13)
- 2014 Redskins (4-12) +1
- 2014 Jaguars (3-13)
- 2015 Jaguars (5-11) +2
- 2014 Raiders (3-13)
- 2015 Raiders (7-9) +4
- 2015 Titans (3-13)
- 2016 Titans (9-7) +4
- 2015 Browns (3-13)
- 2016 Browns (1-15) -2
Average rate of improvement: 3.42 games
Leave it to the Browns and Rams to screw up the curve. Regardless the numbers don’t lie. On average an NFL team should improve by about three to four games after finishing with a 3-13 record the year before. So if the Bears stick to the normal trend they will likely own a 6-10 or 7-9 record in 2017. Depending on perspective that is either terrible or a step in the right direction. Much of it of course will depend on health and quality of play at quarterback.
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There are exceptions to the rule of course. Three teams on that list improved by a huge margin of seven games, posting 10-6 records. Chicago too has a history of overachieving in such circumstances. They went from 5-11 in 2000 to 13-3 in 2001. A few years later in 2004 they went 5-11, only to go 11-5 the next year. Then again the Bears haven’t been in a hole this deep before. Not in the modern era
In fact the only man who has really been in this situation is none other than GM Ryan Pace himself. He was a top scout for that Saints team that finished 3-13 in 2005, only to witness the resurrection a year later. He’s seen how the turnarounds are achieved. That, if nothing else, should give Bears fans hope that the success is coming sooner than later.
