When Chicago Bears GM Ryan Pace picked Mitch Trubisky with the second overall pick, he set the football world ablaze. Naturally there were plenty of critics, both national and local. The fact that he gave up two third round picks and a fourth round pick to move up just one spot? Not only that but to take a quarterback with just 13 career starts to his name? People lambasted the move for being unnecessary as the Bears could’ve just waited.
However, that’s not entirely true. Word persists that the 49ers had two other teams ready to trade for the #2 spot. That meant Trubisky was in high demand. If Pace wanted to get his guy, then he needed to sweeten the pot to do it. He did so, the Bears moved up and secured their quarterback of the future. People have grumbled ever since.
That includes a number of media members who attended the Bears press conference following the first round action. They came hard with the obvious questions. One would’ve expected Pace to shrink from the heat. He did not.
The practical reasons Ryan Pace picked Mitch Trubisky
Pace: "His accuracy jumps out right away. He's very athletic. He can extend the play." #Bears
— Jake Perper (@BearsBacker) April 28, 2017
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Pace on Trubisky: "He has great feet. He's athletic enough dropping away from center."
— Jake Perper (@BearsBacker) April 28, 2017
People tend to forget that the actual top thing Pace wanted most from his quarterbacks was an ability to be accurate with his passing. Sure experience and elevating the program is nice, but it doesn’t mean much if his throws aren’t getting to where they’re supposed to go. Trubisky showed throughout 2016 and the pre-draft process that his ball placement and accuracy were consistent. Much of that due in part to his natural footwork.
Yet even when he was under pressure he managed to stick some absolute beauties into tight coverage. This throw against Pitt is a perfect example. It’s fourth down and failure to convert means the game is over. Trubisky immediately has pressure in his face. Rather than panic he hits his back step and fires a bullet between two defenders for a huge first down.
With a h/t to @ErikLambert1, here’s Trubisky on 4th down on the final drive threading the needle to Switzer with a hand in his face pic.twitter.com/ah41ybP1yu
— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) April 28, 2017
The philosophical reasons
Where Pace really delivered his counterattack to his detractors was on the wider scope of his decision. He made it clear that a team can’t be great in the NFL without a quarterback. If the Bears want to change that narrative, one that has haunted the franchise for decades, then they have to be aggressive in order to change it. Pace knows the price he paid and gave off plenty of vibes hinting he’d do it again and again.
Why? He believes Trubisky gives this team the best possible long-term chance to win a Super Bowl. In the end, if he believes that it should be enough.
Pace: "If we want to be great we can't sit on our hands. I just don't want to be average. I want to be great." #Bears
— Jake Perper (@BearsBacker) April 28, 2017
Pace: "We still have other avenues to improve this team. How are you going to get better at QB if you don't address it like this?"
— Jake Perper (@BearsBacker) April 28, 2017
Pace: "I hope everyone is excited about it. The most important position in all of sports is quarterback." #Bears
— Jake Perper (@BearsBacker) April 28, 2017
Understand what has just transpired. The Bears haven’t taken a first round quarterback since 2003 (Rex Grossman). They haven’t taken one in the top five since 1982 (Jim McMahon). The last time they got the very first quarterback on the board? That would be way back in 1951. If people needed a little extra validation, here is a list of the first quarterbacks taken in every draft of the Super Bowl era.
Every QB with an asterisk was Pro Bowler or champion
- 1966. Rick Norton
- 1967. Steve Spurrier
- 1968. Greg Landry*
- 1969. Greg Cook
- 1970. Terry Bradshaw*
- 1971. Jim Plunkett*
- 1972. Jerry Tagge
- 1973. Bert Jones*
- 1974. Danny White*
- 1975. Steve Bartkowski*
- 1976. Richard Todd
- 1977. Steve Pisarkiewich
- 1978. Doug Williams*
- 1979. Jack Thompson
- 1980. Marc Wilson
- 1981. Rich Campbell
- 1982. Art Schlichter
- 1983. John Elway*
- 1984. Boomer Esiason*
- 1985. Randall Cunningham*
- 1986. Jim Everett*
- 1987. Vinny Testaverde*
- 1988. Tom Tupa*
- 1989. Troy Aikman*
- 1990. Jeff George
- 1991. Dan McGwire
- 1992. David Klingler
- 1993. Drew Bledsoe*
- 1994. Heath Schuler
- 1995. Steve McNair*
- 1996. Tony Banks
- 1997. Jim Druckenmiller
- 1998. Peyton Manning*
- 1999. Tim Couch
- 2000. Chad Pennington
- 2001. Michael Vick*
- 2002. David Carr
- 2003. Carson Palmer*
- 2004. Eli Manning*
- 2005. Alex Smith*
- 2006. Vince Young*
- 2007. JaMarcus Russell
- 2008. Matt Ryan*
- 2009. Matthew Stafford*
- 2010. Sam Bradford
- 2011. Cam Newton*
- 2012. Andrew Luck*
- 2013. E.J. Manuel
- 2014. Blake Bortles
- 2015. Jameis Winston*
- 2016. Jared Goff
So of the 51 quarterbacks who were first off the board at their position dating back to 1966, a total of 26 went on to at least one Pro Bowl or won a championship during their career. That means the Bears have about 50.9% odds that they just landed a top quarterback. Given the importance of the position, that’s actually decent gambling right there. So yeah, Pace pushed in a few more chips at the table to make sure he won the hand. It was costly today, but in the long run?
It could end up being viewed as the exact right thing to do.
