Is Ryan Pace considered unpredictable when it comes to the first-round of the NFL Draft? Not so sure. Most Chicago Bears fans picture general manager Pace to be very secretive with a seemingly bigger plan behind every move that he makes. A large portion of that “bigger plan” will be unveiled when the team selects with the number three pick in the upcoming draft. As the draft day approaches, analysts are weighing in with their predictions… and there’s something very interesting about that trend.
The 2017 NFL Draft will be Pace’s third as the youngest general manager in the NFL. Meanwhile, head coach John Fox just turned 62 and will be entering his third year with the Bears. How predictable do you think these two are?
During the draft process, most teams engage in several different tactics to throw off the rest of the league. This allows them to remain unpredictable then secretly target the players they really want to end up with. For example, if the Bears met with a coveted prospect one week before the draft the team selecting after them might think they need to trade up to ensure they get said player. As you can see, such tactics could heavily influence the draft in the end. That’s why the most unpredictable GM’s tend to be in the best position to succeed when making their selections. Especially in the first-round.
If you look at the course of history, Pace doesn’t appear to be one of those unpredictable GM’s. Sure, he drafted very well last year and still has some untapped potential from the year before, but how well did he hide his intention from others?
Subscribe to the BFR podcast and ride shotgun with Dave and Ficky as they break down Bears football like nobody else.
Let’s talk about 2015 first. A draft where mocks had Kevin White going as high as number one and then six other teams end up passing before Chicago selects him at #7. Not too much to hide about this pick, White was considered one of the top six players in the draft. The question is though, why did all the other teams pass if White was such an elite player?
Did you know that Walter Cherepinsky, from WalterFootball.com a highly regarded draft analysis site, correctly predicted White would be drafted by the Bears just three days before it took place? One person correctly guessing Pace’s pick wasn’t the part that made it predictable it was that every single other analyst also predicted a wide receiver … or a defensive lineman. When you scan all the mock drafts from 2015 you will notice a trend, almost every analyst chose a receiver or a defensive lineman. Pace chose a receiver.
The reason this is odd is because of how often Pace talks about drafting the “best player available.” If that was truly the case, how did all the analysts know exactly what two positions Chicago would pick from at #7? Maybe it was an anomaly.
On to 2016.
Choosing with the eleventh pick in the draft, and a full season now under his belt as GM, Pace had a lot of scenarios that could’ve played out with the top 10 picks. This created tons of speculation and the analysts dug in.
On the morning of April 28th, the actual day the draft took place in Chicago, Larry Mayer from ChicagoBears.com posted an article that was basically a compilation of analyst predictions for Pace’s first-round pick at #11.
Guess what? TEN people correctly predicted that the Bears would select Leonard Floyd. That was a little less than half of the entire group. Half.
Not only that, but Mel Kiper Jr. originally pegged Floyd for Chicago on April 6th! Then stuck to his pick again on the 28th. Did he know something?
With a mere thirty some-odd days before the 2017 draft begins, the most common names you hear associated with Chicago are Jonathan Allen, Jamal Adams, Solomon Thomas, Deshaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky. That means it’s sure to be a safety, defensive end or quarterback.
Based on Pace’s short history as GM, you can almost bet the analysts will be right and the pick will be one of these guys. Which one? That will likely be whittled down as the draft draws closer.
Now, if checking the mocks the day before the draft is an accurate way to predict what the Bears will do, imagine how confident that makes the other teams feel…
Let’s hope Pace has a surprise in store for everybody at #3.
Bear down.
