A Chicago Bears draft trade is never a dull conversation. Not for the diehard NFL offseason lovers anyway. This year, more than ever, fans are desperate to know what the Bears might have planned early in the upcoming 2017 NFL draft. It’s plain that it could be the most important in the past decade for the franchise, and thus far the buildup hasn’t been enthusiastic.
Several experts around the league have been puzzled by the Bears’ moves up to this point. While they’ve brought in a sizable contingent of depth for the roster via free agency, most agree the roster isn’t that much better from where it was at the end of 2016. A year they finished with their worst record of the Super Bowl era at 3-13.
It feels more than ever like GM Ryan Pace needs to make some sort of splash in the draft. Something to galvanize the fans into believing this team is trying to make serious headway towards competing again. Often the best way to do that is with a bold trade. One people have begun to clamor for.
The Bears draft trade everybody wants
Primarily the argument among Bears fans is what they should do regarding the quarterback position in the draft. Many believe the team shouldn’t screw around. Just take the best signal caller available at #3 overall. Why risk it in such a thin class? Beyond the top 4-5 options it gets ugly in a hurry. Odds are most of them could be picked clean by the second round.
Subscribe to the BFR podcast and ride shotgun with Dave and Ficky as they break down Bears football like nobody else.
Then there are those who propose an alternative. Take the best player available at #3. Most likely a top defensive player like a Solomon Thomas or Jamal Adams. Then trade back up into the first round from pick #36 to go after that quarterback. It’s quite a popular proposal on social media, but quite difficult to pull off.
#Bears are very likely to face a scenario (of at least 1) of not being able to trade down in the 1st & not deal up in the 2nd for a QB.
— Aaron Leming (@AaronLemingNFL) March 22, 2017
It just doesn’t make fiscal sense to many. Why give up extra picks when you can get the top QB right away and the draft class is considered deep at almost every defensive position? It’s not an easy sell on either side because they both have merit. Even so, why would Pace consider doing it? The short answer is simple. He’s seen it done before.
The 1-2 punch maneuver works
Back in 2011, Pace was the Director of Pro Scouting for the New Orleans Saints. A top man in their front office. So he had a hand in helping them pull off one of wildest draft-day moves in franchise history. It started when they selected defensive end Cameron Jordan with their 24th overall pick. A man who has become a two-time Pro Bowler since. Good pick.
It’s what came next that caught everybody off guard. Just four picks later the Saints traded their second round choice (#56) and their first rounder in 2012 to the New England Patriots for the 28th overall pick. With it they selected Alabama running back Mark Ingram. He became a Pro Bowler as well and now ranks third in franchise history for rushing yards.
Safe to say that move worked out quite well for the Saints as both remain key parts of their roster. That has to give Pace confidence that it can be done. So would he do it? Well he’s already proven he’s willing to trade up to get players he wants. In 2015 it was rumored he might try to go after Marcus Mariota but the price got out of control. Last year he did trade up from #11 to #9 to grab Leonard Floyd. Pace doesn’t fear the bold move.
Would he be willing to sacrifice a future first round pick if he thought he could get high enough to snag a potential franchise quarterback? Odds are he would, especially after placating John Fox with the defensive stud they grab at #3. So how high could the Bears get if they did that?
Finding the sweet spot
According to common draft trade charts, the minimum points value for a first round pick is 590. That’s for the team who wins the Super Bowl. Even so, we’ll keep it hypothetical. The Bears package their #36 pick and 2018 first round choice to move up. All told that’s a value of 1,130 points. Conceivably that would be worth the 14th pick (1,100 points) in the first round.
Is that high enough to get one of the 3-4 best quarterbacks in this class? Suffice to say the odds would be astronomically better there than if the Bears waited until the second round. The tricky part, as always, is finding a team who would be willing to do business. There’s no guarantee any of those picking in that range would want to move that far back, even if it’s for a future first rounder.
Regardless, it doesn’t change the facts. Ryan Pace has shown a bold Bears draft trade is not going to scare him. Not if he feels the right player is there for the taking.
