The Daily Grind: Chicago’s Guide to Handicapping MLB ( 8/20/14)

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chicago baseball handicapping

What a fiasco last night at Wrigley Field.  The grounds crew had some problems with the tarp, which in turn led to the game being called final after 4.5 innings.  This caused our under play to be voided and our Giants play to lose.  Tough loss to swallow on the north side last night.  On the south side, Baltimore finally got to Quintana in the 6th and again the Sox only scored 1 run in support of him.  The Play of the Day was an easy victory as Iwamuka cruised through 8 shut out innings in Philadelphia.

Week 2 Breakdown

Cubs 1-1

White Sox 1-1

Play of the Day 1-1

Overall 3-3 -.1 units

Let’s move on to today’s ball games.

Chicago Cubs (E. Jackson)+115 vs San Francisco Giants (J. Peavy)-125

Edwin Jackson toes the rubber tonight for the Cubs against Jake Peavy and the San Francisco Giants. This game features 2 pitchers that are having the worst years of their careers. Jackson’s struggles have been well documented in Chicago. He is 4-6 with a 5.79 ERA at home and 1-3 with a 6.10 ERA post All Star break.  He pitches to over the posted total 63% of the time. Peavy hasn’t been much better for the Giants.  He is 1-8 with a 5.72 ERA on the road with a 5.52 ERA at night.  However, he has pitched to under the posted total 69% of the time.  He has lost a lot of close, 1 run, ball games this year. The umpire calling balls and strikes in this game will be Toby Basner.  Basner calls games to the over 73% of the time.  It appears to be a humid night at Wrigley tonight.  Expect balls to carry well.  Play on this game is Over 8 runs.

Chicago White Sox (H. Noesi)+130 vs Baltimore Orioles ( W. Chen) -140

The White Sox look to avoid the sweep tonight against Baltimore on the south side.  Hector Noesi has actually thrown the ball better lately posting a 4-1 record with a 3.92 ERA post All Star break.  The Sox as a team have won his last 3 starts.  However, Baltimore as a team has a .316 BAA him. Wei-Yin Chen is on the hill for Baltimore.  He is 3-1 with a 2.51 post All Star break.  The team is 14-9 in his 23 starts, but has lost his last 2.  Chen is 9-2 with a 3.36 ERA at night.  I don’t trust Noesi as far as I can throw him, play in this game is Baltimore -140.

Play of the Day

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (G. Richards)-140 vs Boston Red Sox (C. Buchholz)

The Angels are going for the sweep in Boston tonight with their ace, Garrett Richards, on the mound.  Richards is 8-2 with a 1.96 ERA on the road and 11-4 with a 2.66 ERA at night.  The team is 18-7 in his starts this season.  Clay Buchholz opposes him for Boston.  It has been a struggle for Buchholz this year.  He has lost confidence in his pitches and is nibbling on the corners.  It has caused him to walk people and get hit hard to the tune of an ERA over 6.50 post All Star break and a 7.00 ERA on the year.  The team is 7-13 in his 20 starts.  The Angels are hot and Buchholz has been anything but reliable this year. Play is on the Angels -140.

Colorado Rockies (J. De La Rosa)+105 vs Kansas City Royals (D. Duffy)

Jorge De La Rosa is on the hill for the Colorado Rockies at home.  This is about as close to an auto play for me as there is.  The Rockies are 46-8 as a team in his last 54 home starts.  This year he is 8-2 with a 3.44 ERA at home.  He hasn’t lost at home since early June.  Danny Duffy is on the hill for one of the hottest teams in baseball, the Kansas City Royals.  Duffy is 3-0 with a 3.71 ERA in his last 3 starts.  However, the team is only 10-9 in his starts this year.  Colorado hits leftys well, especially at home.  Play on the home dog in this game, Colorado +105.

Final Card

Cubs/Giants Over 8

Baltimore -140

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim -140

Colorado Rockies +105

Fade or Follow, the choice is yours.  Good luck.


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